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Will an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude occur worldwide before Oct 1, 2026?

Pays out if the result is 8 or more.

Chance

8%

Buy Yes

8¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

—

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

—

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 28 seconds ago. Ends Oct 1, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by USGS. Contract terms (PDF)

If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 8.0 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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