Polymarket· World · Brazil · Politics · Elections

Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Chance

16%

Buy Yes

19¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

87¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 7 minutes ago. Ends Oct 5, 2:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Can’t both happenWill Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 35% and 38% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7.3¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?40¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?9.6¢

Latest trades

27 minutes agoBought No at 83¢$15
28 minutes agoBought No at 83¢$2
46 minutes agoBought Yes at 18.7¢$10
4 hours agoBought No at 83.8¢$31
4 hours agoBought No at 82¢$4
8 hours agoBought No at 77¢$15
8 hours agoBought No at 77¢$24
8 hours agoBought No at 77¢$31
8 hours agoBought No at 77¢$26
10 hours agoBought No at 76¢$30