Polymarket· World · Brazil · Politics · Elections

Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Chance

5%

Buy Yes

9.6¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

99.4¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 23 minutes ago. Ends Oct 5, 2:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Can’t both happenWill Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 35% and 38% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7.3¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?19¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?40¢

Latest trades

8 hours agoSold Yes at 0.4¢$0
9 hours agoBought No at 99.7¢$34
9 hours agoBought No at 99.6¢$40
10 hours agoBought Yes at 3.5¢$1
10 hours agoBought Yes at 1.9¢$1
12 hours agoBought No at 93¢$39
15 hours agoBought No at 93¢$21