Polymarket· World · Brazil · Politics · Elections

Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Chance

39%

Buy Yes

40¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

62¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 1 minute ago. Ends Oct 5, 2:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Can’t both happenWill Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 35% and 38% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7.3¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?18¢
Can’t both happenWill Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?9.6¢

Latest trades

3 hours agoSold Yes at 35¢$0
4 hours agoBought Yes at 26¢$5
5 hours agoBought No at 64¢$3
5 hours agoBought Yes at 39¢$10
5 hours agoBought Yes at 38.7¢$7
5 hours agoBought Yes at 36.5¢$51
9 hours agoBought Yes at 28¢$11
9 hours agoBought Yes at 27¢$47
9 hours agoBought No at 77¢$15
9 hours agoBought No at 76¢$30