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Politics

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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)Democrats, 8 to 10%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202725%—Kalshi25¢$806
Minnesota Governor margin of victoryKlobuchar, 8+ ptsPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202773%—Kalshi73¢$787
Georgia Senate margin of victoryOssoff, 4+ ptsPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202781%—Kalshi82¢$780
Berlin State Election: 2nd PlaceCDUPoliticsEnds Sep 20, 202642%—Polymarket42¢$774
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202613%—Polymarket15¢$768
Sweden Riksdag election: 7th place (vote share)Green PartyPoliticsEnds Sep 18, 202696%—Kalshi99¢$767
Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?PoliticsEnds Jan 1, 20273%—Kalshi3.5¢$765
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceAugusto CuryPoliticsEnds Oct 3, 202645%—Polymarket45.2¢$755
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?October 31PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 20267%—Polymarket8¢$749
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202614%—Polymarket14¢$738
Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202735%—Kalshi37¢$735
Idaho Senate election: Natalie Fleming vote percentAt least 5%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202721%—Kalshi24¢$734
Florida Governor Election WinnerByron Donalds (R)Politics81%—Polymarket81¢$719
Lima Mayoral Election WinnerRafael López AliagaPoliticsEnds Oct 4, 202677%—Polymarket77.2¢$714
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?September 30PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 20267%—Polymarket8¢$714
Paraná Governor Election WinnerSergio MoroPoliticsEnds Oct 4, 202684%—Polymarket84¢$714
Will President Trump be impeached during his term?PoliticsEnds Jan 20, 202966%—Kalshi67¢$713
Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?PoliticsEnds Mar 31, 202730%—Kalshi30¢$710
Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?S + MPPoliticsEnds Jul 31, 202727%—Polymarket27¢$710
SC-05 House Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 20-25%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202634%—Polymarket49¢$704
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Below 190PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202625%—Polymarket26¢$692
KS-02 House Election WinnerDerek Schmidt (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202689%—Polymarket90¢$691
GA-02 House winner?Sanford BishopPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202795%—Kalshi96¢$680
Delaware Senate Election WinnerDemocratPolitics96%—Polymarket97¢$678
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ulrich SiegmundPoliticsEnds Sep 6, 202642%—Polymarket42¢$671
Will Xi meet a major US AI CEO this month?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202685%—Kalshi88¢$669
TX-15 House winner?Bobby PulidoPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202762%—Kalshi62¢$665
Minnesota Governor winner?Amy KlobucharPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202795%—Kalshi95.7¢$663
Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?PoliticsEnds Jan 1, 20272%—Kalshi3.7¢$657
MI-08 House winner?Kristen McDonald RivetPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202794%—Kalshi95.9¢$654
OH-10 House Election WinnerMike Turner (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202684%—Polymarket84¢$653
Which ballot measures will pass in California?Proposition 45PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202759%—Kalshi62¢$651
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?47–49 and 193–207PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202631%—Polymarket34.9¢$643
Minnesota Senate margin of victoryFlanagan, 5+ ptsPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202783%—Kalshi84¢$640
DE-AL House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 15-20%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202622%—Polymarket33¢$636
CO-08 House Election WinnerManny Rutinel (D)PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202681%—Polymarket82¢$636
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerCleitinho AzevedoPoliticsEnds Oct 4, 202686%—Polymarket87¢$628
Pete Hegseth departure announced?Before Nov 1, 2026PoliticsEnds Jul 31, 202613%—Kalshi15¢$626
CA-07 House winner?Doris MatsuiPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202764%—Kalshi66¢$624
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?September 30PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202641%—Polymarket42¢$623
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?PoliticsEnds Jan 20, 202919%—Kalshi20¢$612
RI-02 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 20-25%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202634%—Polymarket34¢$612
NJ-10 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 60-65%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202628%—Polymarket29¢$611
MN-06 House Election WinnerTom Emmer (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202691%—Polymarket91¢$611
Montana Senate winner?Kurt AlmePoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202791%—Kalshi91.6¢$607
Will Trump be impeached?Before Jan 1, 2028PoliticsEnds Sep 1, 202661%—Kalshi61¢$607
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 202624%—Polymarket24¢$605
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryLula da Silva <5%PoliticsEnds Oct 3, 202649%—Polymarket50¢$602
When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?Before Jan 1, 2027PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202610%—Kalshi12¢$600
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?No changePoliticsEnds Oct 27, 202667%—Polymarket68¢$594
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