Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
The margin of victory in the first round of the Brazil presidential election determines the outcome.
Polymarket$659 traded 24hEnds Oct 3, 2026Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva <5% | 49% | — | 50¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | 25% | — | 25.6¢ | |
| Lula da Silva 5-10% | 17% | — | 18¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | 6% | — | 7.5¢ | |
| Lula da Silva 10-15% | 4% | — | 5.9¢ | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | 3% | — | 3.3¢ | |
| Lula da Silva 15%+ | 1% | — | 0.6¢ | |
| Other | <1% | — | 0.2¢ | |
| Ratinho Júnior Victory | <1% | — | 0.2¢ | |
| Renan Santos Victory | <1% | — | 0.2¢ | |
| Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | <1% | — | 0.2¢ |
Lula da Silva <5%
49%
—Yes price on Polymarket, last 2 weeks
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