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393 events

KalshiPolymarketOn both venues
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How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?Above 0Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 1, 202736%—Kalshi39¢—
Anthropic corporate adoption rate in SeptemberAbove 43.5%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202684%—Kalshi87¢—
GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?↑ $7.50Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 30, 202689%—Polymarket89.9¢—
Healthcare AI adoption in SeptemberAbove 43%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202690%—Kalshi94¢—
How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?Above 10Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 1, 202786%—Kalshi89¢—
Manufacturing AI adoption in SeptemberAbove 61%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202681%—Kalshi85¢—
OpenAI corporate adoption rate in SeptemberAbove 39.3%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202693%—Kalshi93¢—
Ramp AI Index adoption rate in SeptemberAbove 56%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202689%—Kalshi93¢—
Tech sector AI adoption in SeptemberAbove 80.75%Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 16, 202687%—Kalshi91¢—
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?140-159Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202676%—Polymarket84.5¢—
Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?At least 180Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202777%—Kalshi77¢—
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by Dec 31, 2026?Above $3.38Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202664%—Kalshi67¢—
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?Before 2032Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202774%—Kalshi78¢—
When will P vs NP be resolved?Before 2040Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202733%—Kalshi37¢—
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?Before 2032Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202780%—Kalshi84¢—
When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?Before 2032Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202750%—Kalshi54¢—
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?Before Jan 1, 2032Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202655%—Kalshi58¢—
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?Before 2035Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202984%—Kalshi87¢—
How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?Above 7kTech & ScienceEnds Jan 1, 202792%—Kalshi94¢—
Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launchBefore Sep 1, 2027Tech & ScienceEnds Nov 30, 202695%—Kalshi99¢—
When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?Before 2040Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 7, 202838%—Kalshi42¢—
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?Hodge ConjectureTech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 204447%—Kalshi47¢—
Will Claude go down on __ days in September?5-7Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202652%—Polymarket52¢—
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?Before Jan 1, 2028Tech & ScienceEnds Mar 31, 202793%—Kalshi95¢—
GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?↑ $3.50Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 30, 202683%—Polymarket89¢—
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?Before 2040Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202660%—Kalshi62¢—
When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?Before 2035Tech & ScienceEnds Jan 1, 202849%—Kalshi52¢—
Will the FDA approve CagriSema?Before Jan 1, 2028Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202681%—Kalshi84¢—
GitHub.com critical incident by...?October 31Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202654%—Polymarket94¢—
Grok 5 released by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202650%—Polymarket63¢—
Grok (Web) Outage by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202662%—Polymarket96¢—
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?November 30Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202678%—Polymarket78¢—
Uber Eats First Zipline Drone Delivery by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202652%—Polymarket92¢—
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?1560Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202630%—Polymarket31¢—
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?December 31, 2027Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202666%—Polymarket82¢—
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?October 31, 2026Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202647%—Polymarket88¢—
GPT-7 released by...?December 31, 2027Tech & ScienceEnds Jun 30, 202784%—Polymarket84¢—
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202695%—Polymarket96¢—
Kimi K4 released by…?December 31, 2026Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202610%—Polymarket11¢—
New MAI thinking model released by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202657%—Polymarket85¢—
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?November 30Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202694%—Polymarket96¢—
Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by...?January 31Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202648%—Polymarket90¢—
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?October 31Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202673%—Polymarket73¢—
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by...?December 31Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202688%—Polymarket93¢—
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?June 30, 2027?Tech & ScienceEnds Mar 31, 202788%—Polymarket88¢—
SSI public model released by…?October 31Tech & ScienceEnds Sep 30, 202619%—Polymarket19¢—
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?December 31, 2027Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202647%—Polymarket48¢—
When will Blue Origin launch New ShepardBefore 2029Tech & ScienceEnds Jun 30, 202841%—Kalshi44¢—
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?Tech & ScienceEnds Dec 31, 202628%—Polymarket47¢—
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Tech & ScienceEnds Oct 31, 202611%—Polymarket13¢—
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