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Politics

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Toronto Mayoral Election WinnerOlivia ChowPoliticsEnds Oct 26, 202689%—Polymarket89¢$1.1K
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?PoliticsEnds Dec 30, 202698%0¢Polymarket97.7¢$1.1K
Huon Valley mayoral election winner?Abby McKibbenPoliticsEnds Oct 27, 202728%−1¢Kalshi28¢$1.1K
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202625%−2¢Polymarket25¢$1.1K
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20264%0¢Polymarket4.2¢$1.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsEnds Sep 29, 20261%0¢Polymarket1¢$1.1K
Will the midterms happen on time?PoliticsEnds Nov 10, 202686%0¢Kalshi86¢$1.1K
How many states will Trump visit in Sep 2026?At least 11PoliticsEnds Oct 1, 20266%−2¢Kalshi7¢$1.1K
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?September 30PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202612%—Polymarket12¢$1.1K
Closest Senate race in 2026?TexasPoliticsEnds Jan 2, 202714%—Kalshi15¢$1K
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/14-9/20)4PoliticsEnds Sep 21, 202645%—Kalshi54¢$1K
IN-04 House Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 25-30%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202648%—Polymarket57¢$1K
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?26-29PoliticsEnds Sep 20, 202671%—Polymarket79¢$1K
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?Before 2027PoliticsEnds Jul 31, 20265%0¢Kalshi4.8¢$1K
MI-02 House Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 20-25%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202637%—Polymarket45.6¢$1K
FL-18 House Election WinnerScott Franklin (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202692%—Polymarket92¢$1K
CA-14 House winner?Aisha WahabPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202779%—Kalshi79¢$1K
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?December 31, 2026PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20263%—Polymarket3.7¢$1K
Will the House pass data center power-cost standards?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202692%——$1K
TX-28 House winner?Henry CuellarPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202785%—Kalshi85¢$1K
FL-25 House winner?Jared MoskowitzPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202773%−1¢Kalshi73¢$1K
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)Below 53PoliticsEnds Feb 1, 202775%—Kalshi75¢$1K
Texas Senate margin of victoryKen Paxton, 5+ ptsPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202717%0¢Kalshi17¢$995
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?December 31PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202657%—Polymarket60¢$979
Will any country leave NATO by...?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20262%+1¢Polymarket3.2¢$967
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)September 18PoliticsEnds Sep 18, 20261%−2¢Polymarket2.3¢$966
TN-07 House Election WinnerMatt Van Epps (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202697%—Polymarket98.8¢$962
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?Before Dec 1, 2026PoliticsEnds Aug 1, 202612%−1¢Kalshi12¢$956
CO-04 House Election WinnerLauren Boebert (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202679%—Polymarket79¢$944
South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout350K-375KPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202646%—Polymarket48¢$943
WA-03 House winner?Marie Gluesenkamp PerezPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202790%—Kalshi90.5¢$942
Texas Senate Election: Turnout9.6M-10MPoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202633%—Polymarket33¢$940
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 20262%−3¢Polymarket2.2¢$928
TX-27 House Election WinnerMichael Cloud (R)PoliticsEnds Nov 2, 202691%—Polymarket91.9¢$927
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?5-7%PoliticsEnds Sep 20, 202653%—Polymarket53¢$925
NE-03 House Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 25-35%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202613%—Polymarket15¢$919
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?September 30PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 20263%+2¢Polymarket3.4¢$916
Who will Trump pardon in 2026?Sean CombsPoliticsEnds Jan 1, 20276%—Kalshi6.9¢$903
Peterborough, ON Mayoral Election WinnerNeil MortonPoliticsEnds Oct 25, 202642%—Polymarket44¢$895
WI-03 House winner?Rebecca CookePoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202772%0¢Kalshi72¢$894
Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026?PoliticsEnds Dec 31, 20266%−1¢Kalshi7.7¢$891
IN-07 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 45-50%PoliticsEnds Nov 3, 202633%—Polymarket35¢$890
How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (9/12-9/18)At least 15PoliticsEnds Sep 19, 20265%—Kalshi5¢$884
Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 202749%+20¢Kalshi49¢$873
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?PoliticsEnds Sep 30, 2026<1%0¢Polymarket0.4¢$872
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Jerry MoranPoliticsEnds Jan 1, 202713%—Kalshi21¢$872
Massachusetts Governor Election WinnerMaura Healey (D)Politics97%—Polymarket96.7¢$862
Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?Dot Plot OmittedPoliticsEnds Dec 31, 202631%—Kalshi33¢$847
Which states will redistrict before the midterms?MissouriPoliticsEnds Nov 1, 20264%—Kalshi5.9¢$831
Osnabrück Mayoral Election WinnerKatharina PötterPoliticsEnds Sep 13, 202687%—Polymarket88.9¢$830
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